Monthly Archives: April 2015

Brew Day 2 – 25 April 2015 Mark’s Stouter Stout

Second brew day was completed at 2:00PM.

1 x 1.7kg Coopers Stout Hopped Extract Can
1 x 1.7kg Coopers Dark Ale Hopped Extract Can
2 x Kit Yeast
0.5kg Dark Dry Malt
0.5kg Dextrose
0.25kg Maltodextrin

Fermentation Vessel in refrigerator - temperature probe taped to side of vessel in insulated holder

Fermentation Vessel in refrigerator – temperature probe taped to side of vessel in insulated holder

Boiled adjuncts in 4L of water for 10 minutes. Sat both cans in hot tap water for 10 minutes to loosen contents before tipping into FV. Rinsed cans in 2L of boiling water and added boiled adjunct mixture. Filled to 23L with cold tap water and aerated well periodically with large spoon. Temperature was too high, packed with ice bricks to get temp down to 30.4C. OG measured as 1.068 (target 1.065) and pitched both packets of kit yeast. Put lid and valve on FV and moved to refrigerator with heat belt wrapped to crash temp to 18.5C. Once at 18.5C set temp to 18.5C using KegKing temperature controller. Plan to leave for 14 days before taking SG reading. Target FG (according to the Kit & Extract Beer Designer spreadsheet) is 1.017 with a 6.7%ABV.

Fermentation Vessel in refrigerator - temperature probe taped to side of vessel in insulated holder

Keg King temperature controller – controls fridge and heat belt

2:00PM temp was 30.4C.
2:30PM temp was 28.4C.
8:30PM temp was down to 18.5C (target brew temperature)
9:00AM 26/4/15 – Significant airlock activity (bubbles every 1-2 seconds), krausen has started to form
6:00PM 28/4/15 – Airlock activity slowed to bubbles every 5-10 seconds
9:00AM 29/4/15 – No airlock activity
2:00PM 2/5/15 – First SG reading taken. 1.022. Drank sample (of course) and it was black and bitter with a hint of wateriness. But not unpleasant. Certainly none of the cidery undertones of my first brew effort.
5:30PM 6/5/15 – SG reading 1.022, fermentation has either stalled or completed. Turned set temperature up to 21C to try to get things started again and plan to take a reading on Saturday 9/5/15. If SG is stable again will rack to secondary, bulk prime, and bottle. Drank sample again, and wow, huge improvement on just four days ago. Smooth rounded mouth feel, no alcohol harshness and the wateryness is gone. Here’s the sample taken today:

IMG_20150506_172446

10/5/15 – Took SG reading of 1.021. Concluded fermentation has stopped. Leaving set to 18.5C until Wednesday 13/5/15 and then will cold crash till Saturday 16/5 and will then bottle.
8:00AM 13/5/15 – Temperature controller taken out of circuit and fridge set to lowest temp.
16/5/15 – Turned off refrigerator and let FV come up to ambient.
17/5/15 – Racked off to secondary. Bulk primed with 115g of brown sugar dissolved in 200mL of boiling water then bottled into 750mL PET bottles. Yield was 22L (29.5 750mL bottles).
23/5/15 – Had first bottle. Very flat, no head to speak of, very dark, caramel and burnt flavours. A little watery and a very slight hint of a cidery twang. You can see a poured glass below.

1 Week after Bottling

1 Week after Bottling

30/5/15 – Cracked second bottle tonight. Little carbonation (as expected) but head was excellent and lasted to end of glass. No noticeable cidery tang and it may have been my imagination but it was a little smoother than last week. Lovely and dark and bitter and intensely satisfying. Alcoholic too, 1 750mL bottle is more than enough for me. Image of poured glass below.

Stout two weeks after bottling - nice head!

Stout two weeks after bottling – nice head!

AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 4

An interesting week this week with several 50/50 games. St Kilda vs Carlton in New Zealand could go either way, I’ve seen two Carlton games this year and one Saints game and they’ve both been woeful. GWS vs GC is an each way bet too, GWS has shown some form this year and the Coasters were good against a declining Geelong last week. The Hawks and the Power looks like a close game too, but I’ll lean to the Hawks because Port only just fell in over the line against an undermanned Roos last round. I’ve tipped against the majority of the systems for the Saints / Blues game (for no real reason other than the Saints appear more rubbish than the Blues) and I’ve gone against the Lions at home because of the Eagles forward line power.

Game My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
Richmond vs Melbourne Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond
St Kilda vs Carlton Carlton St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda
Essendon vs Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Collingwood Collingwood
GWS Giants vs Gold Coast GWS Giants Gold Coast GWS Giants GWS Giants GWS Giants
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn
Fremantle vs Sydney Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle
Brisbane vs West Coast West Coast Brisbane Brisbane West Coast West Coast
Geelong vs North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide

AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 3 Results

Well, all the favourites got up this week. It’s interesting that none of the systems picked Port Adelaide. The main reason for this is the moving average that each system uses to evaluate relative team strength. Port lost their first two games badly and were sitting low on the ladder, which offset their high position in the last few rounds of 2014. This, coupled with the game being played in Victoria means no system selected them. I personally picked them because Port’s two first games were against tough teams (Swans and the Dockers) and North Melbourne were beaten handily by Adelaide in Round 1 and were flat track bullies last week against the hapless Lions.

Results Round 3

My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
9 8 8 8 8

Current Leaderboard (Round 3)

My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
20/27 18/27 19/27 18/27 18/27

AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 3

An interesting round this week. At first glance there’s only one game that could go either way, North vs Port. However, closer examination suggests that Brisbane at home to Richmond should give an edge to the Lions, but they’ve had a diabolical run with injuries. Couple that with Richmond being truly awful last week and it’s a struggle to pick a winner. The four automated tipping systems suggest that the Collingwood vs St Kilda game is going to be close, but despite that all four selected the Magpies.

Game My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
Collingwood vs St Kilda Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood
Carlton vs Essendon Essendon Essendon Essendon Essendon Essendon
Adelaide vs Melbourne Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide
Sydney vs GWS Giants Sydney Sydney Sydney Sydney Sydney
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Port Adelaide North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne
Brisbane vs Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn
Geelong vs Gold Coast Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong
West Coast vs Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle

AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 2 Results

It was a bad tipping week this week with several upsets, two of which were completely out of the blue. Almost no-one could have predicted the Saints getting up over the Suns and Essendon doing a number on reigning back to back premier, Hawthorn. Obviously it’s tough for any system to predict these sorts of upsets.

Results Round 2

My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
5 4 5 3 4

Current Leaderboard (Round 2)

My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
11/18 10/18 11/18 10/18 10/18

AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 2

Here’s the AFL tips for round 2 of the 2015 season! The two deadband systems have chosen Sydney over Port Adelaide so (I guess) that suggests that match is likely to be a close one with homeground advantage giving the slight edge to Port. Last year Port were unlucky to lose to Sydney at the SCG early in the season but Sydney beat Port quite easily at Adelaide Oval late in the year during the Power’s losing streak. An interesting statistic is that Port has actually lost 9 of their last 15 matches. Despite this I still picked the Power to win in front of 50,000 screaming fans!

Game My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
West Coast vs Carlton West Coast West Coast West Coast West Coast West Coast
Richmond vs Western Bulldogs Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond
GWS Giants vs Melbourne GWS Giants GWS Giants GWS Giants GWS Giants GWS Giants
Collingwood vs Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Collingwood Collingwood
Gold Coast vs St Kilda Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast
Port Adelaide vs Sydney Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Sydney Port Adelaide Sydney
Geelong vs Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong
Essendon vs Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn
North Melbourne vs Brisbane North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne

AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 1

I’ve been tinkering with the idea of creating a spreadsheet to systemise match tips for Australian rules football for a while now. This is because of anecdotal evidence that a reasonable systemised method of selecting winners is likely to out perform most football tippers because it removes any psychological bias.

So, in my spare time in the last month I’ve done a little statistical analysis of the past four years of match results and arrived at a few factors that seem to have the strongest correlation on who does (and doesn’t) win each match. As you imagine, these include who is the home team, relative ladder positions, and so on. I’ve come up with four slightly different systems to tip each week, with various parameters tuned to fit actual match results over the last four years.

Systems 1 and 3

Systems one and three use the same straight comparison of weighted relative ladder position and match type (home, away, interstate, neutral). System 1 includes a bias for some teams, predicting that certain teams will rise up the ladder in 2015, and certain teams will drop. System 3 does not.

Systems 2 and 4

Systems two and four use the same comparison used by the first two systems but apply a dead band selection. Basically this means if the comparison is sufficiently small then these systems select the team that has the highest weighted relative ladder position. Additionally system 2 uses the same bias for some teams that system 1 uses.

Tips for Round 1

Here’s the tips for round 1 (along with my own tips). Each week I’ll update the tips and compare the performance of each system.

Game My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
Carlton vs Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond
Melbourne vs Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast
Sydney vs Essendon Sydney Sydney Sydney Sydney Sydney
Brisbane vs Collingwood Brisbane Brisbane Brisbane Collingwood Collingwood
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs West Coast
St Kilda vs GWS Giants GWS Giants St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda
Adelaide vs North Melbourne Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle
Hawthorn vs Geelong Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn