AFL Tipping Spreadsheet – Round 1

I’ve been tinkering with the idea of creating a spreadsheet to systemise match tips for Australian rules football for a while now. This is because of anecdotal evidence that a reasonable systemised method of selecting winners is likely to out perform most football tippers because it removes any psychological bias.

So, in my spare time in the last month I’ve done a little statistical analysis of the past four years of match results and arrived at a few factors that seem to have the strongest correlation on who does (and doesn’t) win each match. As you imagine, these include who is the home team, relative ladder positions, and so on. I’ve come up with four slightly different systems to tip each week, with various parameters tuned to fit actual match results over the last four years.

Systems 1 and 3

Systems one and three use the same straight comparison of weighted relative ladder position and match type (home, away, interstate, neutral). System 1 includes a bias for some teams, predicting that certain teams will rise up the ladder in 2015, and certain teams will drop. System 3 does not.

Systems 2 and 4

Systems two and four use the same comparison used by the first two systems but apply a dead band selection. Basically this means if the comparison is sufficiently small then these systems select the team that has the highest weighted relative ladder position. Additionally system 2 uses the same bias for some teams that system 1 uses.

Tips for Round 1

Here’s the tips for round 1 (along with my own tips). Each week I’ll update the tips and compare the performance of each system.

Game My Tips System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4
Carlton vs Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond
Melbourne vs Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast
Sydney vs Essendon Sydney Sydney Sydney Sydney Sydney
Brisbane vs Collingwood Brisbane Brisbane Brisbane Collingwood Collingwood
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs West Coast
St Kilda vs GWS Giants GWS Giants St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda
Adelaide vs North Melbourne Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle
Hawthorn vs Geelong Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn
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About markn

Mark is the owner and founder of Timesheets MTS Software, an mISV that develops and markets employee timesheet and time clock software. He's also a mechanical engineer, father of four, and a lifelong lover of gadgets.